Transplant Antibody-Mediated Rejection: Guiding Effective Treatments
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 19% for any early termination, 15% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (741 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2023-01-09, after 2019-07-17 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “other”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-01-09. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: patientskidneytransplantsclerosishave received
Phrases that lowered it: halfthe trialpostrandomisedparticipants -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 11.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Collaborators: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 57 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 17.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor's past trials: 227 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 152970 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Minimum age: 5 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 88.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
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Blinding: none (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 3 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 2 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 5 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 227 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 11.0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 57 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 152970 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 28410 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 88.6% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 17.3% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- methylprednisolone, rituximab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Impact of Treatment With Rituximab on the Progression of Humoral Acute Rejection After Renal Transplantation NCT01350882 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed
- Efficacy of Rituximab in Acute Cellular Rejection in Renal Transplant Patients NCT01117662 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials terminated
- An Efficacy and Safety Study of Imlifidase in Treatment of Antibody-Mediated Rejection in Kidney Transplant Patients NCT03897205 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials completed
- Efficacy and Safety of Eculizumab for Treatment of Antibody-mediated Rejection Following Renal Transplantation NCT01895127 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 81% of active trials terminated
- Clazakizumab for the Treatment of Chronic Active Antibody Mediated Rejection in Kidney Transplant Recipients NCT03744910 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.