A Study to Test How Well Different Doses of BI 754132 Are Tolerated in Patients With an Advanced Form of Age-related Macular Degeneration Called Geographic Atrophy

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 5% of the time (4,470 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-08-09. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: eyebidiabeticcelldoses
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsarea20open labelcompare
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.1% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 557 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 97 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 50 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Design: sequential (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: none (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Test How Well Different Doses of BI 771716 Are Tolerated by People With an Advanced Form of Age-related Macular Degeneration (AMD) Called Geographic Atrophy NCT06006585 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
• An Open-Label, Phase 1 Clinical Study to Evaluate the Safety and Tolerability of Subcutaneous Elamipretide in Subjects With Intermediate Age-Related Macular Degeneration NCT02848313 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials completed
• Evaluation of Kamuvudine-8 in Subjects With Geographic Atrophy NCT06164587 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed
• Study to Compare the Efficacy and Safety of Intravitreal APL-2 Therapy With Sham Injections in Patients With Geographic Atrophy (GA) Secondary to Age-Related Macular Degeneration NCT03525600 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
• A Study to Test Different Doses of BI 836880 in Patients With an Eye Disease Called Wet Age-related Macular Degeneration (wAMD) NCT03861234 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.