Safety and Pharmacokinetics of Oral Islatravir (MK-8591) Once Monthly in Participants at Low Risk of Human Immunodeficiency Virus 1 (HIV-1) Infection (MK-8591-016)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 6% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (1,304 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-11-24. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancerinfectioncellpriorhiv
  Phrases that lowered it: pharmacokineticsvisitevaluate thetolerabilitysafety
• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 17.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1260 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 123 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of Islatravir (MK-8591) in Anti-Retroviral Therapy-Naive, Human Immunodeficiency Virus-1 Infected Participants (MK-8591-003) NCT02217904 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
• Safety and Pharmacokinetic Study of Oral MK-8527 QM in Participants at Low-Risk for HIV-1 Infection (MK-8527-007) NCT06045507 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• MK-8583 Single Dose Study in Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 1 (HIV-1) Infected Participants (MK-8583-002) NCT03552536 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
• Islatravir (MK-8591) With Doravirine and Lamivudine in Participants Infected With Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 1 (MK-8591-011) NCT03272347 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
• Dose Ranging, Switch Study of Islatravir (MK-8591) and Ulonivirine (MK-8507) Once-Weekly in Virologically-Suppressed Adults With Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 1 (HIV-1) [MK-8591-013] NCT04564547 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.