Air Versus Oxygen for Intermediate-Risk Pulmonary Embolism (AIRE)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 27% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 11% of the time (234 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2022-07-25, after 2019-07-11 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-07-25. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: pulmonarymmhghoursoxygenthe safety
Phrases that lowered it: trialtreatment withtreatment inaccordingtherapy -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 50% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor's past trials: 2 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- government (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 2 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 50% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cardiovascular, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Nitric Oxide to Treat Pulmonary Embolism NCT01939301 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
- Diclofenac for Submassive PE NCT01590342 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials terminated
- Catheter-Directed Thrombolysis Versus Anticoagulation Monotherapy in Intermediate-High Risk PE NCT05172115 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials terminated
- ULTrasound Accelerated ThrombolysIs of PulMonAry Embolism NCT01166997 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials completed
- Thrombolysis Endovascular Treatment of Pulmonary Embolism NCT03966079 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.