Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) Plus Gemcitabine/Cisplatin Versus Placebo Plus Gemcitabine/Cisplatin for First-Line Advanced and/or Unresectable Biliary Tract Carcinoma (BTC) (MK-3475-966/KEYNOTE-966)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 26% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (927 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-04-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancermetastaticgemcitabinetherapyunresectable
  Phrases that lowered it: participantssmall cellsolidwith advancedinvestigator
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 17.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 122 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 23.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1260 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 93.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 14480 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 89706 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) Plus Gemcitabine/Cisplatin Versus Placebo Plus Gemcitabine/Cisplatin for First-Line Advanced and/or Unresectable Biliary Tract Carcinoma (BTC) (MK-3475-966/KEYNOTE-966)-China Extension Study NCT04924062 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
• Trial of S-1 Plus Cisplatin (SP) Versus Gemcitabine Plus Cisplatin (GP) in Advanced Biliary Tract Adenocarcinoma NCT01375972 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials completed
• NGS as the First-line Treatment in Advanced Biliary Tract Cancer NCT04172402 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed
• A Study of Atezolizumab With or Without Bevacizumab in Combination With Cisplatin Plus Gemcitabine in Patients With Untreated, Advanced Biliary Tract Cancer NCT04677504 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed
• Gemcitabine Plus Cisplatin With or Without Bintrafusp Alfa (M7824) in Participants With 1L BTC NCT04066491 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.