A Study of the Safety, Tolerability and Efficacy of Treatment With AP1189 in Early RA Patients With Active Joint Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (369 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-11-16. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: diseaseevidencedialysisseveredefined
  Phrases that lowered it: rasubjectsrheumatoidarthritisasthma
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 5.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 63.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Safety & Efficacy Study of Treatment With AP1189 in Rheumatoid Arthritis Patients naïve to DMARD Treatment NCT05516979 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
• A Dose-range Study of the Safety and Efficacy of Treatment in Adult Rheumatoid Arthritis Patients With an Inadequate Response to Methotrexate NCT05604885 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate Safety and Efficacy of ASP015K in Patients With Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA) Who Had an Inadequate Response to DMARDs NCT02308163 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed
• A Study of JNJ-40346527 in Patients With Active Rheumatoid Arthritis Despite Disease-modifying Antirheumatic Drug Therapy NCT01597739 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials completed
• A Randomized, Placebo-controlled Phase II Clinical Trial to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of F8IL10 (Dekavil) in Patients With Active RA Receiving MTX NCT02270632 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.