A Study of Mirikizumab (LY3074828) in Children and Teenagers With Ulcerative Colitis (UC)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 19% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 18% of the time (280 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-03-15. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: activetreatmentbiologicresponseanti
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsscreeningto evaluatekgbody
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1322 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 146 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.8% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 9 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 17 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of Mirikizumab (LY3074828) in Pediatric Participants With Moderately to Severely or Active Ulcerative Colitis NCT05784246 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
• An Induction Study of Mirikizumab in Participants With Moderately to Severely Active Ulcerative Colitis (LUCENT 1) NCT03518086 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed
• A Study of Mirikizumab (LY3074828) in Participants With Moderate to Severe Ulcerative Colitis NCT02589665 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed
• A Multicenter, Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo Controlled Induction Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Risankizumab in Participants With Moderately to Severely Active Ulcerative Colitis NCT03398148 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy of MMX Mesalamine/Mesalazine in Pediatric Subjects With Mild to Moderate Ulcerative Colitis NCT02093663 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.