Evaluation of Risk-Adapted and MRD-Driven Strategy for Untreated Fit Patients With Intermediate Risk Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 23% for any early termination, 12% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,198 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-01-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: carcinomariskcelltherapyevidence
  Phrases that lowered it: breast cancerthe aimaim ofuse oftrial
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 19.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 13784 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 19.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 78.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 5 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 37753 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Phase II Trial GA101 Inbrutinib B CLL NCT02666898 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials completed
• Standard Chemoimmunotherapy (FCR/BR) Versus Rituximab + Venetoclax (RVe) Versus Obinutuzumab (GA101) + Venetoclax (GVe) Versus Obinutuzumab + Ibrutinib + Venetoclax (GIVe) in Fit Patients With Previously Untreated Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia (CLL) Without Del(17p) or TP53 Mutation NCT02950051 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
• Ibrutinib as Early Therapy in Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia (CLL) NCT03207555 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials completed
• Ibrutinib lead-in Followed by Venetoclax Plus Ibrutinib in Patients With RR CLL NCT03708003 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials terminated
• Trial of Ibrutinib Plus Venetoclax Plus Obinutuzumab in Patients With CLL NCT02758665 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.