A Study to Evaluate the Effectiveness and Safety of IONIS-FB-LRx, an Antisense Inhibitor of Complement Factor B, in Adult Participants With Primary IgA Nephropathy

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 20% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (369 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-04-11. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: transplantdiseasesubjects withof screeningcoronary
  Phrases that lowered it: and safetyevaluate theto evaluatesafety ofthe effect
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 4.3% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 47 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 11 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Open-Label Study to Evaluate Safety and Efficacy of CCX168 in Subjects With IGA Nephropathy on Stable RAAS Blockade NCT02384317 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials completed
• Clinical Trial to Assess Efficacy and Safety of the Human Anti-CD38 Antibody Felzartamab (MOR202) in IgA Nephropathy NCT05065970 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials completed
• The Clinical Trial of ADR-001 for IgA Nephropathy NCT04342325 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
• A Study of RC18 Administered Subcutaneously to Subjects With Primary IgA(Immunoglobulin A) Nephropathy NCT04291781 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability of BCX9930 in Participants With Either Complement 3 Glomerulopathy (C3G), Immunoglobulin A Nephropathy (IgAN), or Primary Membranous Nephropathy (PMN) NCT05162066 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.