Anakinra for the Treatment of Chronically Inflamed White Matter Lesions in Multiple Sclerosis
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 16% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 18% of the time (243 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2023-10-24, after 2019-10-25 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-10-24. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: mribraincellsprioror equal
Phrases that lowered it: participantsmultipleasthmadrughistory -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 120 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 8.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 67.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: government (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor's past trials: 137 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1/2 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 5 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 120 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- government (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 137 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 9.5% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 8 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 5487 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 1692 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 67.8% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 8.5% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- neurology, immunology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- anakinra
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Ofatumumab Subcutaneous Administration in Subjects With Relapsing-Remitting Multiple Sclerosis NCT01457924 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials completed
- Natalizumab (BG00002, Tysabri) Study in Japanese Participants With Relapsing-Remitting Multiple Sclerosis (RRMS) NCT01440101 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials completed
- Study to Assess Whether GSK239512 Can Remyelinate Lesions in Subjects With Relapsing Remitting Multiple Sclerosis NCT01772199 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
- 31P-MRS Imaging to Assess the Effects of CNM-Au8 on Impaired Neuronal Redox State in Multiple Sclerosis. NCT03993171 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials completed
- Safety, Tolerability and Activity Study of Ibudilast in Subjects With Progressive Multiple Sclerosis NCT01982942 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 53% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.