A PHASE 2B PLACEBO-CONTROLLED, RANDOMIZED STUDY OF A RESPIRATORY SYNCYTIAL VIRUS (RSV) VACCINE IN PREGNANT WOMEN

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 3% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (780 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-09-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: therapysyndromecellassociatedcancer
  Phrases that lowered it: vaccineparticipantsparticipantvaccinationimmunogenicity
• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 15.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 1839 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 163 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Trial to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of RSVpreF in Infants Born to Women Vaccinated During Pregnancy. NCT04424316 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• A Phase III, Double-blind Study to Assess Safety and Efficacy of an RSV Maternal Unadjuvanted Vaccine, in Pregnant Women and Infants Born to Vaccinated Mothers NCT04605159 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials terminated
• Study of Safety, Reactogenicity and Immunogenicity of GlaxoSmithKline's (GSK)Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV)Maternal Unadjuvanted Vaccine in Healthy Pregnant Women (Aged 18 to 40 Years) and Their Infants NCT04126213 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• A Study on the Safety and Immune Response to an Unadjuvanted RSV Maternal Vaccine, in High Risk Pregnant Women Aged 15 to 49 Years and Infants Born to the Vaccinated Mothers NCT04980391 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Describe the Safety and Immunogenicity of a RSV Vaccine in Healthy Adults NCT03529773 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.