A Research Study of How Semaglutide Works in People With Disease Affecting the Heart and/or Blood Vessels and Type 2 Diabetes
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 9% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (816 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2023-06-06, after 2019-08-12 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-06-06. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.3% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 35.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Minimum age: 50 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 1.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 62 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 685 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: heartcoronaryarteryequal tobreast
Phrases that lowered it: participantsmedicinethe studyvisitdrugs -
Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 50 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 685 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 5.3% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 62 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 2343 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 2072 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 35.2% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 1.0% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- metabolic, endocrine
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- semaglutide
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Heart Disease Study of Semaglutide in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes NCT03914326 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
- Semaglutide Effects on Heart Disease and Stroke in Patients With Overweight or Obesity NCT03574597 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
- A Research Study Looking at How Well a Combination of the Medicines Semaglutide and NNC0480-0389 Works in People With Type 2 Diabetes NCT05144984 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
- A Research Study to See How Semaglutide Helps People With Excess Weight and Type 2 Diabetes Lose Weight NCT05649137 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
- Research Study Investigating How Well Semaglutide Works in People With Type 2 Diabetes Suffering From Overweight or Obesity NCT03552757 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.