A Phase 2 Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of LOU064 in Patients With Moderate to Severe Sjögren's Syndrome

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 20% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (369 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-11-23. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 14.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: other (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: to severemoderate tochronicdry eyesyndrome
  Phrases that lowered it: effectevaluate theto evaluatearthritisdiseases
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1239 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 161 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Keywords listed: 18 (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Proof of Concept Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of BMS-931699 (Lulizumab) or BMS-986142 in Primary Sjögren's Syndrome NCT02843659 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials terminated
• Study to Assess Safety and Efficacy of Filgotinib, Lanraplenib and Tirabrutinib in Adults With Active Sjogren's Syndrome NCT03100942 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess the Efficacy of RO5459072 in Participants With Primary Sjogren's Syndrome NCT02701985 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials completed
• Study of Safety and Efficacy of Multiple Doses of CFZ533 in Two Distinct Populations of Patients With Sjogren's Syndrome NCT03905525 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials completed
• A Study of INCB050465 in Primary Sjögren's Syndrome NCT03627065 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.