A Study of CC-99712, a BCMA Antibody-Drug Conjugate, in Participants With Relapsed and Refractory Multiple Myeloma
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 17% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,938 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2024-08-19, after 2019-08-26 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “enrollment”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-08-19. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 15.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: transplantstemmyelomasubject hascell
Phrases that lowered it: participantparticipantsevaluate theopen labelprotocol defined -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 48 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 188 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- non randomized (typical: randomized)
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 6 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 188 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 15.4% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 48 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, cardiovascular, immunology, hematology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Study to Evaluate the Safety and Tolerability of CC-92328 in Participants With Relapsed and/or Refractory Multiple Myeloma NCT04975399 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials terminated
- A Study of CC-95266 in Participants With Relapsed and/or Refractory Multiple Myeloma NCT04674813 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials completed
- Study of CC-93269, a BCMA x CD3 T Cell Engaging Antibody, in Participants With Relapsed and Refractory Multiple Myeloma NCT03486067 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials terminated
- A Study of CC-98633, BCMA-targeted Chimeric Antigen Receptor (CAR) T Cells, in Participants With Relapsed and/or Refractory Multiple Myeloma NCT04394650 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 53% of active trials completed
- Phase 1/2 Study of ISB 1442 in Relapsed/Refractory Multiple Myeloma NCT05427812 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.