Tezepelumab COPD Exacerbation Study

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 10% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (528 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-01-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: placebo controlledblind placeboenrollmentrandomized doublerandomization
  Phrases that lowered it: copdfev1and safetybronchodilatorchronic obstructive
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 1561 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 132 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Phase 2a Study to Assess Safety, Daily Symptoms, PK, and Biomarkers of YPL-001 in COPD Patients NCT02272634 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
• Comparing the Efficacy of Tiotropium + Olodaterol (5/5 µg) Fixed Dose Combination (FDC) Over Tiotropium 5µg in Reducing Moderate to Severe Exacerbations in Patients With Severe to Very Severe Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease. NCT02296138 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess the Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of Once-daily (q.d.) QVA149 in Patients With Moderate to Severe Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) NCT01202188 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• A Crossover Study to Determine the Effect on Lung Function of Indacaterol in Patients With Moderate to Severe Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD), Using Tiotropium as an Active Control NCT00615459 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
• Study to Assess the Safety and Efficacy of PT010, PT003, and PT009 in Japanese Subjects With COPD Compared With Symbicort® Turbohaler® NCT03262012 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.