A Study of Nivolumab in Combination With Ipilimumab in Participants With Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 18% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (927 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2026-07-09, after 2019-09-30 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-07-09. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: advancedcarcinomahccmetastaseshepatocellular
Phrases that lowered it: participantsreceivedcomparegrouphepatic -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 26.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 100 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 19793 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 81450 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 674 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 10.4% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 100 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 4 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 81450 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 19793 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 88.1% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 26.8% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, digestive
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- ipilimumab, lenvatinib, nivolumab, sorafenib
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- An Investigational Immuno-therapy Study of Nivolumab Compared to Sorafenib as a First Treatment in Patients With Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma NCT02576509 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials completed
- An Immuno-therapy Study to Evaluate the Effectiveness, Safety and Tolerability of Nivolumab or Nivolumab in Combination With Other Agents in Patients With Advanced Liver Cancer NCT01658878 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
- A Study of Nivolumab and Ipilimumab and Nivolumab Alone in Combination With Trans-arterial ChemoEmbolization (TACE) in Participants With Intermediate Stage Liver Cancer NCT04340193 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
- Safety and Efficacy of Lenvatinib (E7080/MK-7902) With Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) in Combination With Transarterial Chemoembolization (TACE) in Participants With Incurable/Non-metastatic Hepatocellular Carcinoma (MK-7902-012/E7080-G000-318/LEAP-012) NCT04246177 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials terminated
- A Study of Lenvatinib Plus Nivolumab in Participants With Hepatocellular Carcinoma NCT03418922 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.