A Study to Evaluate Long-Term Maintenance Treatment With Once Daily Crisaborole Ointment 2% in Pediatric and Adult Participants With Mild-to-Moderate Atopic Dermatitis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 7% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (336 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-01-19. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: adtherapydiseaseactivesyndrome
  Phrases that lowered it: dermatitisand safetyatopicevaluateefficacy and
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 15.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 1843 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 3.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 162 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 4797 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Crisaborole for Chinese and Japanese Subjects (≥2 Years of Age) With Mild to Moderate Atopic Dermatitis NCT04360187 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
• Study to Assess Efficacy and Safety of Two Regimens of Crisaborole Ointment 2% in Japanese Participants Aged ≥2 Years With Mild to Moderate Atopic Dermatitis NCT03954158 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
• Crisaborole Ointment 2% Skin Biomarker Biopsy Study in Atopic Dermatitis NCT03233529 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
• A Study of the Long-Term Safety of Crisaborole Ointment, 2% in Japanese Pediatric and Adult Participants With Mild to Moderate Atopic Dermatitis NCT04498403 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials terminated
• A Study of Baricitinib (LY3009104) in Participants With Moderate-to-Severe Atopic Dermatitis NCT02576938 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 29% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.