A Multiple Ascending Dose Study of Pegozafermin in Participants With Biopsy Confirmed Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis (NASH) or Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease (NAFLD) and at High Risk of NASH

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 11% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 21% of the time (1,462 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-01-19. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 21 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: stagebiopsytype diabetesfibrosisrisk
  Phrases that lowered it: disorderevaluate theparticipantto evaluatecenter
• Number of arms: 8 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safety, Tolerability, and Efficacy of Monotherapy and Combination Regimens in Participants With Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis (NASH) NCT03987074 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed
• A Study of BOS-580 in Obese Subjects at Risk for, or With Biopsy-confirmed, Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis (NASH) With an Extension NCT04880031 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed
• Study Evaluating the Safety, Efficacy and Tolerability of BIO89-100 in Subjects With Biopsy-confirmed Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis (NASH) NCT04929483 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability, and Drug Levels of BMS-963272 in Participants With Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease NCT04766476 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials terminated
• Study to Evaluate Safety, Tolerability, and Efficacy of GS-0976 in Adults With Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis NCT02856555 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.