A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of KSI-301, an Anti-VEGF Antibody Biopolymer Conjugate, Versus Aflibercept in Patients With Neovascular (Wet) Age-Related Macular Degeneration.

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 21% of the time (63 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-04-26. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 50 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 40.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 17 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 91.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: may applycriteria mayother protocolsecondaryactive
  Phrases that lowered it: the efficacymmhgefficacy andand safetydiseases
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Intravitreal KSI-301 Compared With Intravitreal Aflibercept in Participants With Neovascular (Wet) Age-related Macular Degeneration (wAMD) NCT04964089 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
• Exploratory Study to Investigate the Bioactivity, Ocular and Systemic Safety, Tolerability, and Pharmacokinetics Following Single and Multiple Intravitreal Administrations of KSI-301 in Subjects With wAMD, DME and RVO NCT03790852 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials terminated
• Study of MP0112 Intravitreal Injection in Patients With Wet Age Related Macular Degeneration NCT01086761 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials terminated
• A Dose Escalation Study of IBI333 in Subjects With Neovascular Age-related Macular Degeneration NCT05639530 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy, Durability, and Safety of KSI-301 Compared to Aflibercept in Participants With Diabetic Macular Edema (DME) NCT04603937 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.