Reducing Antiretroviral Treatments
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 8% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (53 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2022-12-14, after 2019-11-27 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “enrollment”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-12-14. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cellstherapywomen ofgrowthplus
Phrases that lowered it: participantscreeningplasmavisithiv rna -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past trials: 59 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Blinding: none (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- government (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 59 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 8.5% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 6 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Study of Darunavir/r + Tenofovir/Emtricitabine vs. Darunavir/r + Raltegravir in HIV-infected Antiretroviral naïve Subjects NCT01066962 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
- Antiretroviral Treatment Taken 4 Days Per Week Versus Continuous Therapy 7/7 Days Per Week in HIV-1 Infected Patients NCT03256422 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
- A Study of the Once Daily Combination of Etravirine and Darunavir/Ritonavir As Dual Therapy in Early Treatment-Experienced Patients NCT01199939 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
- Switch From Dual Regimens Based on Dolutegravir Plus a Reverse Transcriptase Inhibitor to E/C/F/TAF in Virologically Suppressed, HIV-1 Infected Patients (Be-OnE) NCT03493568 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials terminated
- A Study to Determine Safety and Efficacy of Dolutegravir/Abacavir/Lamivudine (DTG/ABC/3TC) in Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV)-1 Infected Antiretroviral Therapy (ART) Naïve Women (ARIA) NCT01910402 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.