Paricalcitol Addition to Chemotherapy in Patients With Previously Untreated Metastatic Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 21% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-02-08. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: radiationcancerof studystagecell
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsfemalemaletrialprotein
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.3% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 26.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 11 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 94.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 119661 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 18057 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Paclitaxel Protein Bound Plus Cisplatin Plus Gemcitabine and Paricalcitol for Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma (NABPLAGEMD) NCT03415854 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed
• Combination Therapy for Patients With Untreated Metastatic Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma NCT02754726 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
• Paricalcitol Trial: Phase II, Open Label Clinical Trial of Paricalcitol in Combination With Gemcitabine/ Nab-Paclitaxel Therapy in Advanced Pancreatic Cancer NCT04617067 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials completed
• Paricalcitol Plus Gemcitabine and Nab-paclitaxel in Metastatic Pancreatic Cancer NCT03520790 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials terminated
• Liposomal Irinotecan Plus 5-FU / LV Combined With Paricalcitol in Patients With Advanced Pancreatic Cancer Progressed on Gemcitabine-based Therapy NCT03883919 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.