Study of Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of CMK389 in Patients With Chronic Pulmonary Sarcoidosis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 23% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (528 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-12-12. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: chronicdiagnosispulmonaryrequiringimaging
  Phrases that lowered it: at screeningefficacysafetyinvestigatorproducts
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 15.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 1337 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 147 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: 75 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study of Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of ACZ885 (Canakinumab) in Patients With Pulmonary Sarcoidosis NCT02888080 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess the Efficacy and Safety of Namilumab in Participants With Chronic Pulmonary Sarcoidosis NCT05314517 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials terminated
• Phase II Investigation of Antimycobacterial Therapy on Progressive, Pulmonary Sarcoidosis NCT02024555 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Safety and Effectiveness of Ustekinumab or Golimumab Administered Subcutaneously (SC) in Patients With Sarcoidosis NCT00955279 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials completed
• The Efficacy and Safety of CC-10004 in Chronic Cutaneous Sarcoidosis NCT00794274 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.