Trial of Anakinra (Plus Zinc) or Prednisone in Patients With Severe Alcoholic Hepatitis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 19% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (136 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-08-12. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: placebo controlleddoublerandomizationto determinebowel
  Phrases that lowered it: participantparticipantsasthmatrialdaily
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 21 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 101 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 367 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 56664 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 344958 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 71.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy Study of Anakinra, Pentoxifylline, and Zinc Compared to Methylprednisolone in Severe Acute Alcoholic Hepatitis NCT01809132 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed
• A Phase 2b Study in Subjects With Alcoholic Hepatitis to Evaluate Safety and Efficacy of DUR-928 Treatment NCT04563026 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials completed
• Study of IDN-6556 in Patients With Severe Alcoholic Hepatitis and Contraindications to Steroid Therapy NCT01912404 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials terminated
• DUR-928 in Patients With Alcoholic Hepatitis NCT03917407 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
• Treatment of Chronic Delta Hepatitis With Lonafarnib, Ritonavir and Lambda Interferon NCT03600714 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.