A Phase 1/2 Trial of ARV-471 Alone and in Combination With Palbociclib (IBRANCE®) in Patients With ER+/HER2- Locally Advanced or Metastatic Breast Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 21% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 29% of the time (655 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-03-05. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: metastaticbreast cancerpatients musther2brain
  Phrases that lowered it: evaluate thepharmacokineticsto evaluatepharmacodynamicssafety
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 10.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 50.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Design: sequential (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 9909 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• PALbociclib Rechallenge in horMone Receptor-posItive/HER2- Negative Advanced Breast Cancer (PALMIRA) NCT03809988 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials completed
• ARV-471 in Combination With Everolimus for the Treatment of Advanced or Metastatic ER+, HER2- Breast Cancer NCT05501769 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
• A Study To Assess The Tolerability And Clinical Activity Of Gedatolisib In Combination With Palbociclib/Letrozole Or Palbociclib/Fulvestrant In Women With Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT02684032 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed
• Study in Women With Advanced Breast Cancer Receiving Palbociclib With AI or Fulvestrant NCT02894398 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• Two Different Schedules of Palbociclib + Second Line Endocrine Therapy in Estrogen Receptor Positive, HER2 Neg Advanced/Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT02630693 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.