A Study of Rivoceranib and Trifluridine/Tipiracil for Metastatic Colorectal Cancer (mCRC)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 16% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,938 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2023-05-31, after 2019-11-18 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “business”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-05-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: ulncarcinomastudy drugof studysubjects with
Phrases that lowered it: participantsparticipantthe investigatorsafetyopen label -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 33.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 65.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 2 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 4 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 10188 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 1933 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 65.0% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 33.6% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, digestive
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- apatinib, rivoceranib, tipiracil, trifluridine
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study to Evaluate Safety, Tolerability, and Efficacy Profile of Rivoceranib With Paclitaxel in Advanced Gastric or Gastroesophageal Junction Cancer NCT03707028 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials terminated
- Multicenter Dose-escalation Study of a Combination of Pazopanib and Bevacizumab in Patients With Metastatic Renal Cell Carcinoma or Others Advanced Solid Tumors NCT01202032 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 29% of active trials completed
- A Study of Efficacy and Safety of Fruquintinib (HMPL-013) in Participants With Metastatic Colorectal Cancer NCT04322539 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
- A Phase I Trial Evaluating mFOLFOX6 and Avastin With Nexavar as First-Line Treatment for Metastatic Colorectal Cancer NCT00779311 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials terminated
- Onvansertib in Combination With FOLFIRI and Bevacizumab for Second Line Treatment of Metastatic Colorectal Cancer Patients With a KRAS Mutation NCT03829410 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.