Study to Assess the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics of ASP1617 in Healthy Adult Non-Asian and Japanese Subjects Including Assessment of a Food Effect

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 5% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 5% of the time (4,470 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-06-12. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: ascendingtolerabilitythe safetydiseasevirus
  Phrases that lowered it: screeningthe pharmacokineticskgdayperiod
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 11.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 24 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 55 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, psychiatry: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Assess the Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of ASP015K in Healthy Subjects NCT02141425 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics of ASP6294 Administered Intravenously or Subcutaneously in Healthy Young Male and Female Subjects NCT02681861 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess the Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of ASP7713 in Healthy Non-Japanese Adult and Elderly Subjects and Healthy Japanese Adult Subjects NCT03108755 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• A Study in Healthy Adult Volunteers to Assess the Safety and Pharmacokinetics of an Investigational Imaging Product NCT03698305 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• A Study of MA-0217 (ASP1128) in Healthy Adult Subjects and Healthy Elderly Subjects NCT04742517 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.