Alisertib in Combination With Osimertinib in Metastatic EGFR-mutant Lung Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 24% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 11% of the time (918 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-10-20. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjectsmallacuteof studyimaging
  Phrases that lowered it: patients whopatients withmgmminvestigator
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 32.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Design: sequential (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 4975 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Advanced Lung Tumor Treated by Osimertinib Plus Anlotinib NCT04770688 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials completed
• Osimertinib in Combination With Alisertib or Sapanisertib for the Treatment of Osimertinib-Resistant EGFR Mutant Stage IIIB or IV Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT04479306 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
• Local Ablative Therapy for Treatment of Oligoprogressive, EGFR-Mutated, Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer After Treatment With Osimertinib NCT02759835 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
• Exploring the Theragnostic Value of Osimertinib in EGFR-mutated Lung Cancer (THEROS) NCT03810066 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
• Osimertinib in First and Second Line Treatment of NSCLC Harboring EGFR Mutations From Circulating Tumor DNA NCT02769286 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.