The Antidiabetic Metformin as a Novel Adjunct to Antidepressants in Major Depressive Disorder Patients

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 12% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (69 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-06-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: least weeksconcurrenttherapyplacebo controlleddepressive
  Phrases that lowered it: patientsdiabetesthe aimresultsallergy
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 7.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 34521 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: 60 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Adjunct Minocyline in Treatment-resistant Depression NCT02456948 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of S 47445 Versus Placebo as Adjunctive Treatment in Depressed Patients Not Fully Recovered From Depressive Symptoms With a Current Antidepressant Treatment NCT02805439 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy of MK-6096 as Adjunctive Therapy in Participants With Major Depressive Disorder And Partial Response to Antidepressant Monotherapy (MK-6096-022) NCT01554176 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of JNJ-42847922 as Adjunctive Therapy to Antidepressants in Adult Participants With Major Depressive Disorder Who Have Responded Inadequately to Antidepressant Therapy NCT03227224 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed
• A Study of Flexible or Fixed Dose LY2216684 as Adjunctive Treatment for Participants With Major Depressive Disorder Who Have Had a Partial Response to Selective Serotonin Reuptake Inhibitor (SSRI) Treatment NCT01187407 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.