Estetrol for the Treatment of Moderate to Severe Vasomotor Symptoms in Postmenopausal Women (E4Comfort II)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 6% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (1,463 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-08-18. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: squamouscellcellscarcinomaacute
  Phrases that lowered it: the efficacysafety ofproductsthe trialkg
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Estetrol for the Treatment of Moderate to Severe Vasomotor Symptoms in Postmenopausal Women (E4Comfort Study I) NCT04209543 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• A Safety and Efficacy Study of the Combination Estradiol and Progesterone to Treat Vasomotor Symptoms NCT01942668 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
• Study Comparing Estradiol Vaginal Inserts 4mcg To IMVEXXY ® (Estradiol Vaginal Inerts 4 mcg) In The Treatment Of Dyspareunia in Women With Vulvur and Vaginal Atrophy NCT05617820 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• A Study to Find Out How Safe Long-term Treatment With Fezolinetant is in Women With Hot Flashes Going Through Menopause NCT04003389 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess the Safety and Tolerability of Fezolinetant in Women Seeking Treatment for Relief of Vasomotor Symptoms (VMS) Associated With Menopause NCT04451226 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.