Safety and Efficacy of ALLO-715 BCMA Allogenic CAR T Cells in in Adults With Relapsed or Refractory Multiple Myeloma (UNIVERSAL)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,938 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-01-27. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellpurposein subjectssubjects withtransplant
  Phrases that lowered it: efficacy andsingleopen labelgroupsafety
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 23.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 93.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 116850 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 20966 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safety and Efficacy of ALLO-605 an Anti-BCMA Allogeneic CAR T Cell Therapy in Patients With Relapsed/Refractory Multiple Myeloma NCT05000450 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials terminated
• APRIL CAR T Cells (AUTO2) Targeting BCMA and TACI for the Treatment of Multiple Myeloma NCT03287804 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials terminated
• Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of Anti-CD38 CAR-T in Relapsed or Refractory Multiple Myeloma Patients NCT03464916 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
• A Study of CC-98633, BCMA-targeted Chimeric Antigen Receptor (CAR) T Cells, in Participants With Relapsed and/or Refractory Multiple Myeloma NCT04394650 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 53% of active trials completed
• Study Evaluating the Safety and Efficacy of JCARH125 in Subjects With Relapsed and/or Refractory Multiple Myeloma NCT03430011 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.