A Study of Nivolumab or Placebo in Combination With Docetaxel in Men With Advanced Castration-resistant Prostate Cancer
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 10% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (927 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2024-06-25, after 2020-02-06 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-06-25. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: metastaticcellchemotherapysettingtherapy
Phrases that lowered it: prostateparticipantsparticipantcastrationhormone -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 13.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 99 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 77.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 357078 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 66334 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- male (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 694 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 10.4% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 99 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 3 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 357078 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 66334 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 77.0% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 13.1% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, urogenital
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- docetaxel, nivolumab, prednisone
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- An Investigational Immunotherapy Study of Nivolumab in Combination With Rucaparib, Docetaxel, or Enzalutamide in Metastatic Castration-resistant Prostate Cancer NCT03338790 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed
- A Study of Nivolumab Plus Ipilimumab, Ipilimumab Alone, or Cabazitaxel in Men With Metastatic Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer (CheckMate 650) NCT02985957 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
- A Study of BMS-986218 or BMS-986218 Plus Nivolumab in Combination With Docetaxel in Participants With Metastatic Castration-resistant Prostate Cancer NCT05169684 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials terminated
- A Safety Study of Abiraterone Acetate Administered in Combination With Docetaxel in Patients With Metastatic Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer (mCRPC) NCT01400555 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
- Continued Treatment With Docetaxel Versus Switch to Cabazitaxel After Minor Prostate Specific Antigen Response to Docetaxel in Patients With Castration-Resistant Metastatic Prostate Cancer NCT01576029 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.