Study to Evaluate AD04 in Adults With Alcohol Use Disorder (AUD) and Selected Serotonin Transporter Polymorphisms

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 12% of the time (422 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-03-18. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subject hasthe subjectdisordersubject isdiagnosis of
  Phrases that lowered it: effectvisitscreeningevaluate theto evaluate
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 13.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 92159 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 78.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 18445 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Pharmacogenetic Study of Ondansetron in Alcohol Use Disorder NCT02354703 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials completed
• HLAB-002 of ANS-6637 for Alcohol Use Disorder NCT03970109 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials terminated
• CRF1 Antagonist GSK561679 in Alcoholism NCT01187511 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed
• Corticotropin-Releasing Hormone Receptor 1 (CRH1) Antagonism in Anxious Alcoholics^ NCT01227980 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed
• Human Laboratory Study of ASP8062 for Alcohol Use Disorder NCT05096117 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.