Nivolumab Plus Pemetrexed for Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 29% for any early termination, 13% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,198 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-04-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellpatients mustcancersquamousand neck
  Phrases that lowered it: evaluate theto evaluatedose ofaccordinginflammatory
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 22.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 28.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 13415 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 90.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 7 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 60715 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Nivolumab in Recurrent and/or Metastatic SCCHN NCT03226756 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
• Study Comparing Pembrolizumab With Methotrexate in Elderly, Frail or Cisplatin-ineligible Patients With Head and Neck Cancers NCT03193931 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials terminated
• Efficacy of Immunotherapy Plus a Drug in Patients With Progressive Advanced Mucosal Cancer of Different Locations NCT04357873 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials completed
• Study of Pembrolizumab Maintenance Following First-Line Platinum Based Chemotherapy in Patients With Metastatic Squamous - Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (sNSCLC) NCT02564380 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials terminated
• Neoadjuvant-Adjuvant Pembrolizumab in Resectable Advanced Basal Cell Carcinoma of H&N NCT04323202 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.