Topical Application to Relieve Gout: Efficacy Trial & Safety (TARGETS)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 8% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 11% of the time (493 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-05-21. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: priorpainrandomizationacutelowering
  Phrases that lowered it: the trialarthritismedical historysubjects whoand safety
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 13.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Evaluate Efficacy, Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics, and Pharmacodynamics of a Single Dose of LEO 158968 NCT06444867 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
• Bucillamine for the Treatment of Acute Gout Flare in Subjects With Moderate to Severe Gout NCT02330796 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials completed
• A Study of the Efficacy of Canakinumab in Prevention of Acute Flares in Chronic Gout Patients Initiating Allopurinol Therapy (Core Study) and a Long-term Study of the Efficacy and Safety of Canakinumab in Patients With Gout (Extension Study) NCT00819585 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials completed
• Efficacy, Safety And Tolerability Of PF-06743649 In Gout Subjects. NCT02187029 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials terminated
• Safety & Efficacy of Canakinumab (ACZ885) in Patients With Frequent Flares for Whom Nonsterodial Anti-Inflammatory Drug (NSAIDs) and/ or Colchicine Are Contraindicated, Not Tolerated or Ineffective NCT01362608 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.