A Study To Determine The Safety, Tolerability, Skin Irritation Potential, And PK Following Topical Application Of PF-07038124 In Healthy Participants
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 7% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (238 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2020-04-10, after 2019-10-29 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-04-10. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: placebosafety tolerabilitypfmultipletolerability and
Phrases that lowered it: participantshealthyparticipantevaluateallergic -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 15.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor's past trials: 1854 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 161 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Keywords listed: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 7 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- sequential (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 1
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 55 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1854 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 15.6% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 161 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- immunology, dermatology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Study to Evaluate the Safety, Local and Systemic Tolerability, and Pharmacokinetics of Multiple-Dose Topical Administration of PF-07038124 in Japanese Healthy Participants NCT04863417 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
- A First-in-human Study of Multiple Doses of Topically Administered PF-07295324 and PF-07259955 NCT05206604 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
- A Study to Assess Pharmacokinetics of PF-04965842 and Its Metabolites and Effect of Probenecid in Healthy Participants NCT03937258 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
- Study of Single Ascending Doses of PF-07081532 in Healthy Adult Participants NCT04148209 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
- Study of Single and Multiple Ascending Doses of PF-07059013 in Healthy Adult Participants NCT04323124 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.