NEURO-TTRansform: A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Eplontersen (Formerly Known as ION-682884, IONIS-TTR-LRx and AKCEA-TTR-LRx) in Participants With Hereditary Transthyretin-Mediated Amyloid Polyneuropathy

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 11% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (734 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-07-12. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: placebodiabeteskeytransplantwithin months
  Phrases that lowered it: labelparticipantopenand safetyto evaluate
• Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 4.3% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 16.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 98.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 47 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 82 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study to Evaluate Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics, and Pharmacodynamics of NTLA-2001 in Patients With Hereditary Transthyretin Amyloidosis With Polyneuropathy (ATTRv-PN) and Patients With Transthyretin Amyloidosis-Related Cardiomyopathy (ATTR-CM) NCT04601051 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Inotersen in Familial Amyloid Polyneuropathy NCT01737398 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
• The Effects of Fx-1006A on Transthyretin Stabilization and Clinical Outcome Measures in Patients With Non-V30M Transthyretin Amyloidosis NCT00630864 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
• APOLLO: The Study of an Investigational Drug, Patisiran (ALN-TTR02), for the Treatment of Transthyretin (TTR)-Mediated Amyloidosis NCT01960348 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials completed
• Evaluate the Safety and Tolerability, as Well as the Pharmacokinetic and Pharmacodynamic Profiles of Single and Multiple Doses of Eplontersen Administered Subcutaneously to Healthy Volunteers and Patients With Hereditary Transthyretin-Mediated Amyloidosis (hATTR ). NCT03728634 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.