Evaluation of the Effect of Metformin on Metastatic Breast Cancer as Adjuvant Treatment
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 26% for any early termination, 12% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2020-06-30, after 2019-10-20 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-06-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: breast cancermetastaticpatientmetforminheart
Phrases that lowered it: effectdailybetween 18the studyrespiratory -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 7.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 65.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 3 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 75 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- female (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 276550 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 39252 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 65.4% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 7.8% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, dermatology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- metformin
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Efficacy and Safety of Adjuvant Metformin for Operable Breast Cancer Patients NCT00909506 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials completed
- Neoadjuvant Letrozole Plus Metformin vs Letrozole Plus Placebo for ER-positive Postmenopausal Breast Cancer NCT01589367 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
- A Trial of Standard Chemotherapy With Metformin (vs Placebo) in Women With Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT01310231 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials completed
- Role of Adding Metformin to Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy in Patients With Breast Cancer (METNEO) NCT04170465 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials completed
- Implication of Metformin Plus Aromatase Inhibitor in Obese Postmenopausal Breast Cancer Women NCT05053841 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.