A Study of LY3437943 in Participants With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 7% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (816 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2020-12-28, after 2019-12-18 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-12-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: ascendingtolerability pharmacokineticssafety tolerabilitymultipleand pharmacodynamics
Phrases that lowered it: bodyparticipantparticipantsinvestigateday -
Minimum age: 20 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 23.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.4% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 1.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor's past trials: 1290 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 152 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 70 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- basic science (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 20 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 70 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1290 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 6.4% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 152 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 28013 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 9352 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 23.9% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 1.6% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- metabolic, endocrine
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- dulaglutide, retatrutide
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study of LY3493269 in Participants With Type 2 Diabetes NCT04515576 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
- A Study of LY3437943 in Japanese Participants With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM) NCT04823208 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
- A Study of LY3502970 in Participants With Type 2 Diabetes NCT04426474 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed
- A Study of LY3108743 in Healthy Participants and Participants With Type 2 Diabetes NCT01995656 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
- A Study of LY3532226 in Participants With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus NCT05407961 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.