Phase 2a Study of AR882 Alone and in Combination With Febuxostat or Allopurinol in Gout Patients
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 9% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 11% of the time (493 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2020-09-03, after 2020-02-03 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-09-03. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: tolerabilitykidneysafety andstudy isthe safety
Phrases that lowered it: patientsevaluate theto evaluateefficacyulcer -
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 14.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 113741 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 82.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 17370 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- crossover (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 3 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 65 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 2 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 2 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 113741 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 17370 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 82.5% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 14.4% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- metabolic, musculoskeletal
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- allopurinol, febuxostat
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Phase 2 to Assess Efficacy and Safety in AR882 Alone or in Combination With Allopurinol in Patients With Tophaceous Gout NCT05253833 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials completed
- Phase 2b Evaluation of Efficacy and Safety of AR882 in Gout Patients NCT05119686 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed
- Phase 3 Evaluation of Efficacy and Safety of AR882 in Gout Patients (AR882-302) NCT06439602 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
- RDEA3170 and Febuxostat Combination Study in Gout Subjects NCT02246673 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
- A Study to Evaluate Safety and Efficacy of Oral Febuxostat in Patients With Gout NCT01736514 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.