Venetoclax and Azacitidine for the Treatment of High-Risk Recurrent or Refractory Myelodysplastic Syndrome
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 24% for any early termination, 12% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (851 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2026-02-03, after 2019-10-01 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “other”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-02-03. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 27.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: failurepotential mustrelapseeligiblesurgically
Phrases that lowered it: receiptdrugsstopping themindividualsby stopping -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 40.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 95.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1/2 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 834 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 27.9% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 234 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 22602 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 6888 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 95.7% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 40.1% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, hematology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- azacitidine, venetoclax
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study Evaluating Venetoclax in Combination With Azacitidine in Participants With Treatment-Naïve Higher-Risk Myelodysplastic Syndromes (MDS) NCT02942290 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials completed
- Venetoclax and Azacitidine for the Treatment of Relapsed or Refractory High-Risk Myelodysplastic Syndrome or Chronic Myelomonocytic Leukemia NCT04550442 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials terminated
- STIMULUS MDS-US : Sabatolimab Added to HMA in Higher Risk MDS NCT04878432 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials terminated
- Venetoclax and Decitabine in Treating Participants With Relapsed/Refractory Acute Myeloid Leukemia or Relapsed High-Risk Myelodysplastic Syndrome NCT03404193 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials terminated
- Omacetaxine and Venetoclax for the Treatment of Relapsed or Refractory Acute Myeloid Leukemia or Myelodysplastic Syndrome Harboring Mutant RUNX1 NCT04874194 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.