A Phase II Study in Adult Patients With Moderate to Severe Atopic Dermatitis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 7% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (369 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-08-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subject hasdiabetesuncontrolledthe subjectphase ii
  Phrases that lowered it: dermatitisatopicmoderateand safetysafety of
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 75 (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Evaluate Efficacy and Safety of Oral SHR0302 in Subjects Aged 12 Years and Older With Moderate to Severe Atopic Dermatitis NCT04875169 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety Study of SHR-1819 Injection in Adult Patients With Severe Atopic Dermatitis NCT06468956 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety Study of SHR-1819 Injection in Adult Patients With Severe Atopic Dermatitis NCT05549947 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• A Phase II Trial of the Safety and Efficacy of RSS0309 Ointment in Adults With Atopic Dermatitis NCT07158151 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• To Assess the Efficacy and Safety of SCD-044 in the Treatment of Moderate to Severe Atopic Dermatitis NCT04684485 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.