Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetic, and Pharmacodynamic Effects of Repeat Topical Application of BOS-356 in Subjects With Moderate to Severe Acne Vulgaris

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 6% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (139 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-11-11. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: priorcellcarcinomatherapyto day
  Phrases that lowered it: acnetopicalvulgarisparticipantfacial
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 2 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: 45 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 6 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Evaluation of BTX 1503 in Patients With Moderate to Severe Acne Vulgaris NCT03573518 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• Bioequivalence Study of Adapalene Gel 0.3% in Subjects With Facial Acne Vulgaris NCT03650361 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
• Double-blind Placebo-controlled Trial of Generic Clindamycin/Benzoyl Peroxide Gel Versus Onexton Gel in Acne Vulgaris NCT02616614 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
• Comparative Safety and Efficacy of Two Treatments in the Treatment of Acne Vulgaris NCT02515305 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• Clinical End Point Study of Generic Adapalene and Benzoyl Peroxide Gel Versus Epiduo® Forte Gel in Treatment of Acne Vulgaris NCT02651220 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.