Daily Vitamin D for Sickle-cell Respiratory Complications

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 12% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (331 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-06-18. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: sicklecell diseaserespiratoryacutechronic
  Phrases that lowered it: patientscelltrialcorticosteroidstherapy
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 20.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 100 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 69.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 3 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 7.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 410 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 31491 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: 20 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Vitamin D for Sickle-cell Respiratory Complications NCT01443728 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
• Study of Vitamin D in Children With Sickle Cell Disease NCT01276587 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
• High Dose Vitamin D for Sickle Cell Disease NCT01331148 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials completed
• Study to Assess Efficacy and Safety of VIT-2763 (Vamifeport) in Subjects With Sickle Cell Disease NCT04817670 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials completed
• Rapid vs Maintenance Vitamin D Supplementation in Deficient Children With Asthma to Prevent Exacerbations. NCT01395589 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.