A Dose-escalation Study to Evaluate the Safety and Clinical Activity of PBCAR269A, With or Without Nirogacestat, in Study Participants With Relapsed/Refractory Multiple Myeloma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 14% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,938 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-10-19. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: leukemiaboneventricularrefractoryprior
  Phrases that lowered it: participantparticipantsmyelomamgdose
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 23.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: sequential (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 94.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 130390 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Investigate the Efficacy and Safety of Two Doses of GSK2857916 in Participants With Multiple Myeloma Who Have Failed Prior Treatment With an Anti-CD38 Antibody NCT03525678 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials completed
• Study of Carfilzomib in Combination w/Dexamethasone in Patients w/Newly Diagnosed Multiple Myeloma NCT01969565 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials terminated
• Study Evaluating Safety, Tolerability and Clinical Activity of GSK2857916 in Combination With Pembrolizumab in Subjects With Relapsed/Refractory Multiple Myeloma (RRMM) NCT03848845 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
• A Phase 1 Study Evaluating CB-5083 in Subjects With Lymphoid Hematological Malignancies NCT02223598 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials terminated
• Safety and Efficacy Study of a Triplet Combination of MLN9708, Lenalidomide and Dexamethasone in the Initial Management of Multiple Myeloma (IFM2013-06) NCT01936532 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.