Early Bactericidal Activity of TBA-7371 in Pulmonary Tuberculosis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 10% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (331 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-10-05. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: leftheartevidencetbmonths
  Phrases that lowered it: participantparticipantsjudgedinvestigatorpartner
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Design: sequential (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: 60 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Phase 2 Trial to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Linezolid in Tuberculosis Patients. (LIN-CL001) NCT02279875 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
• Evaluation of Early Bactericidal Activity in Pulmonary Tuberculosis With(J-M-Pa-Z) (NC-001) NCT01215851 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
• A Phase 2 to Evaluate the Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of Combinations of Bedaquiline, Moxifloxacin, PA-824 and Pyrazinamide in Adult Subjects With Drug-Sensitive or Multi Drug-Resistant Pulmonary Tuberculosis. NCT02193776 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
• Evaluation of Early Bactericidal Activity in Pulmonary Tuberculosis With Clofazimine (C)-TMC207 (J)-PA-824 (Pa)-Pyrazinamide (Z) NCT01691534 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
• PanACEA DElpazolid Dose-finding and COmbination DEvelopment (DECODE) NCT04550832 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.