Nivolumab With Chemotherapy in Pleural Mesothelioma After Surgery

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 24% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-01-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: surgerycarcinomachemotherapypriorcancer
  Phrases that lowered it: psoriasistype diabetespatients whohcvwith type
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 7 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 136216 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 23.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 27698 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 92.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Ipilimumab and Nivolumab in the Treatment of Malignant Pleural Mesothelioma NCT03048474 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• Nivolumab Monotherapy or Nivolumab Plus Ipilimumab, for Unresectable Malignant Pleural Mesothelioma (MPM) Patients NCT02716272 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
• Nivolumab in Patients With Recurrent Malignant Mesothelioma NCT02497508 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed
• Anti-Mesothelin Immunotoxin LMB-100 Followed by Pembrolizumab in Malignant Mesothelioma NCT03644550 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials terminated
• DuRvalumab With chEmotherapy as First Line treAtment in Advanced Pleural Mesothelioma NCT04334759 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.