A Study to Assess the Safety, Tolerability and Preliminary Efficacy of ASP0367 (MA-0211) in Pediatric Male Participants With Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy (DMD)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (544 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-09-04. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: metforminsubject hasthe subjectbaselinestable
  Phrases that lowered it: subject whoevaluate thevirusthe pharmacokineticsefficacy
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.3% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 16 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 5 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 8 (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• An Open-Label, Long-Term Extension Study to Evaluate the Safety and Tolerability Deflazacort NCT02295748 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate ASP0367 in Participants With Primary Mitochondrial Myopathy NCT04641962 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials terminated
• Evaluation of Safety, Tolerability, and Changes in Biomarker and Clinical Outcome Assessments of Losmapimod for FSHD1 With Extension NCT04004000 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials terminated
• A Pharmacokinetic Study of Oral Deflazacort in Children and Adolescent Subjects With Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy NCT02251600 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
• Efficacy Study of AVI-4658 to Induce Dystrophin Expression in Selected Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy Patients NCT01396239 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.