Efficacy and Safety of Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) Plus Enzalutamide Plus Androgen Deprivation Therapy (ADT) Versus Placebo Plus Enzalutamide Plus ADT in Participants With Metastatic Hormone-Sensitive Prostate Cancer (mHSPC) (MK-3475-991/KEYNOTE-991)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 18% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (1,463 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2026-04-08, after 2020-02-12 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-04-08. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: metastaticrandomizationhearthepatitis virushcv
Phrases that lowered it: participantsefficacy andparticipantand safetyprostate -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 17.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 124 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 66.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 24.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor's past trials: 1271 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 10038 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports before start: 63231 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
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Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 2 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- male (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1271 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 17.1% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 124 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 63231 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 10038 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 66.5% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 24.0% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- enzalutamide, pembrolizumab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Efficacy and Safety of Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) Plus Enzalutamide Plus Androgen Deprivation Therapy (ADT) Versus Placebo Plus Enzalutamide Plus ADT in Participants With Metastatic Hormone-Sensitive Prostate Cancer (mHSPC) (MK-3475-991/KEYNOTE-991)-China Extension NCT04934722 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed
- Study of Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) Plus Enzalutamide Versus Placebo Plus Enzalutamide in Participants With Metastatic Castration-resistant Prostate Cancer (mCRPC) (MK-3475-641/KEYNOTE-641) NCT03834493 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
- Study of Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) Plus Olaparib Versus Abiraterone Acetate or Enzalutamide in Metastatic Castration-resistant Prostate Cancer (mCRPC) (MK-7339-010/KEYLYNK-010) NCT03834519 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
- Study of Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) in Participants With Metastatic Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer (mCRPC)(MK-3475-199/KEYNOTE-199) NCT02787005 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
- Study of Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) Plus Docetaxel Versus Placebo Plus Docetaxel in Chemotherapy-naïve Metastatic Castration-resistant Prostate Cancer (mCRPC) (MK-3475-921/KEYNOTE-921) NCT03834506 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.