A Study to Assess EDP-938 for the Treatment of Acute Upper Respiratory Tract Infection With Respiratory Syncytial Virus in Adult Subjects
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 18% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (1,304 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2022-01-04, after 2020-01-22 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-01-04. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: chronicliverhepatitis virusinfectionoz
Phrases that lowered it: first dosestemreceiptdisordersalcohol -
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.3% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 75 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 1
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 75 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 19 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 5.3% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 8 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- DAS181 Single Dose Escalation Study in Healthy Adults NCT00876161 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
- Dose Finding Study of Nemiralisib (GSK2269557) in Subjects With an Acute Moderate or Severe Exacerbation of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) NCT03345407 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials terminated
- A Study of AL-794 to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability, and Pharmacokinetics of Single and Multiple Doses, and the Antiviral Activity of Multiple Doses in an Influenza Challenge Study NCT02588521 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
- A Study of EDP-938 in Non-hospitalized Adults With RSV Who Are at High Risk for Complications. NCT05568706 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
- Influenza Antiviral DAS-181-F04 in Healthy Adults NCT01651494 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.