The Evaluation of Postoperative Antibiotics in Non-Infected Mandible Fractures

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 24% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (201 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-03-20. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: injurychemotherapytissueinfectionfracture
  Phrases that lowered it: to evaluateallergicthe studyinfecteddrugs
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 8.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 71 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 117828 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 304 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 5 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Keywords listed: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 78.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 17019 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Tobramycin Injection to Prevent Infection in Open Fractures NCT04964947 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed
• Locally Applied Antibiotics for Infection Prophylaxis in Treatment of Open Fractures NCT03705962 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials terminated
• Comparison Between Two Different Antibiotic Regimens for the Placement of Dental Implants NCT01851681 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
• Complications After Lower Third Molar Surgery NCT03130933 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• Topical Antibiotic Therapy to Reduce Infection After Operative Treatment of Fractures at High Risk of Infection: TOBRA NCT04597008 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.